Bain Sees Tech Decoupling Between the U.S. and China

This is from the press release describing the firm’s second annual Global Technology report, issued Monday. It’s one of the clearest signs that U.S.-Chinese rivalry is spilling into investment decisions made by major tech companies.

“Although the global technology industry will continue to be co-dependent for the foreseeable future, several major countries are now investing more than ever in technology and supply chain independence.

“The US and China’s complicated relationship over the last few years has pushed the world in this direction. Over the last several years, the decoupling of the US and China’s economies and technology ecosystems has gained momentum, with both countries making multi-billion-dollar investments in their domestic technological development for the future. China, in fact, plans to spend a whopping $1.4 trillion over the next few years in infrastructure technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI), semiconductors and 5G networks.

“The two nations’ recent moves signal that decoupling will be a defining feature of the technology landscape for years to come. Recent supply chain disruptions, such as the global chip shortage, have only exacerbated these challenges and compounded the desire for self-reliance. According to Bain’s analysis, from 2016 to 2020, technology-related foreign direct investment between the US and China dropped by 96%, creating uncertainty for tech companies around the world and requiring tech executives to be comfortable with constant adaptation. But although decoupling appears all but inevitable, multiple chokepoints assure the global technology industry will remain co-dependent—for now.”

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