The bond sell-off: Is China sending us a message?

The financial markets are all atwitter about a two-day sell-off in U.S. government bonds, which is having a nasty impact on the U.S. stock market. Interest rates are increasing. Who is the largest holder of U.S. government debt? China’s government. They would not have to do anything radical to help create a sell-off. Even if […]…

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Trump Has No Idea About the Range of Actions China Could Take

With President Trump’s finger apparently poised to launch another $200 billion in tariffs on goods made in China, the Chinese are floating the idea that they could impose restrictions on the export of parts and components that American companies need to make things in the United States and elsewhere in the world. That would cripple […]…

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Lessons for President Trump’s China Negotiators: Remember the Structural Impediments Initiative

Back in the late 1980s, the American government was frustrated by the size of Japan’s trade surplus with the United States and launched negotiations called the Structural Impediments Initiative (SII). The theory of President George H.W. Bush’s trade team was that Japan had structural barriers that prevented American companies and others from selling more parts […]…

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Reflections from Jackson Hole–Before The Economists Get Here

The Federal Reserve is about to stage its annual gathering of economists and other policy-makers in Jackson Hole later this month but I beat them here (seen above on Jackson Lake.) Which means that I get to help set the stage with these informal reflections on China, the environment, tourism, immigration and the like. CHINA: […]…

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