The Chinese have been negotiating for millenia. As we know from The Art of War, they are masters at it. But President Trump is making so many mistakes in his negotiating style and tactics that the negotiations are, in effect, already over. And the Chinese government won.
The Chinese know what Trump has a short attention span and doesn’t care about details. So they have engaged in a patient, detailed negotiating path where they repackage many old ideas and avoid specific commitments. They are grinding down Trump’s attention span.
Meanwhile, Trump is signalling an optimistic outcome. He’s telegraphing that the two sides are making great progress and that he wants to have a summit with President Xi Jinping at Mar-a-Lago to consummate a great deal. That means he has lost whatever remaining negotiating clout he possessed. He has sacrificed his leverage. The Chinese can read the tea leaves as well as anyone else–Trump wants a Nobel Peace Prize for his bro-mance with Kim Jong-un and he wants a tweetable victory with the Chinese. He wants to be a Great Man in the face of the swirling scandals. It’s all about showmanship.
Under these circumstances, there is zero chance that Trump’s team will be able to push the Chinese into any meaningful structural reform in which they relax their push for technological supremacy, relying on state-owned and state-controlled enterprises and companies. Not to mention the truly deep game–hacking, espionage, penetration of U.S. government agencies and companies, and the massive theft of personal data.
The Chinese government will give Trump more soybean and natural gas purchases, but not a great deal else that is verifiable and enforceable.
