Most of the scenarios I read about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan are too simple. Most of them assume that the conflict and consequent economic damage could be contained to the Taiwan island and surrounding waters. Here are the factors not being discussed enough:
- The last credible figure I saw for how many Taiwanese are on the mainland was 1 million. They are managing factories and running businesses. FoxConn, which does all of Apple’s assembly, is Taiwanese. What if there is a conflict? What would those 1 million Taiwanese business people do? They would not be able to get back to Taiwan, even if they wanted to. But it seems safe to assume they would not be enthusiastic about running factories that support the Chinese government or military. Plus: all exports of semiconductors from Taiwan to China would be halted. It seems logical that Japan, the United States and South Korea would also halt them. This is China’s worst nightmare because it is highly dependent on foreign semiconductors.
- The conflict would be multilateral from the outset. It would not just be Chinese forces arrayed against U.S. and Taiwanese forces. Japan would clearly be in the mix, if for no other reason than the U.S. operates from bases in Japan and China sent its ballistic missiles into waters claimed by Japan after the Nancy Pelosi visit. The Japanese understand that the island chain consisting of Japan and Taiwan is the first line of defense against Chinese attempts to dominate the world’s oceans. The Japanese have strong, if unofficial, ties with Taiwan and clearly would want to prevent Chinese occupation. Australia also most likely would be involved in crucial chokepoints such as the Straits of Malacca.
- The sea lanes that bring critically needed fuel and food from Africa, the Mideast, and Europe to China almost certainly be impacted and perhaps even shut down. China has built up stockpiles but those would be quickly run down. The Chinese would start to experience hunger and scarcity of energy. Meanwhile, Americans who have come to depend on a steady flow of products made in China also would have to go without them after existing inventories are used up. That would have catastrophic impact on American markets and its economy as a whole. In effect, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would trigger a world war and a global depression. The United States and China are the world’s two largest economies and are deeply intertwined. The whole world would feel the impact if the trading links that have been built up over decades are suddenly disrupted.
