An article of faith that has wisely guided American policy efforts regarding the Korean Peninsula is that the Americans need to remain in lockstep with the South Korean and Japanese governments, just as North Korea remains in sync with China and to some extent Russia.
But even before Trump sits down with Kim Jong-un, presuming the meeting actually takes place, it’s clear is that the United States is out of step with the South Korean government’s position and the Japanese have been blind-sided by the Trumpian diplomacy. A crucial element of trust has been eliminated. Thus Kim’s charm campaign already has created fissures in the alliance that has stood firmly against him despite the obvious tension and mistrust that exist between Seoul and Tokyo.
South Korean President Moon appears to have staked out a position that falls short of Trump’s insistence that the North completely dismantle its nuclear program within six months. This takes away crucial bargaining clout from Trump. He cannot threaten any military pressure if the South Koreans are dovish and will not allow their territory to be used. Any independent military pressure applied on the North would create a crisis in relations between Washington and Seoul. The South Koreans are also likely to be more eager to provide financial benefits to the North, as they have in the past. Any such gestures would take wind out of the sails of Trump’s global effort to tighten sanctions against Pyongyang. Hence it appears that the South’s diplomacy is going to box Trump in.
The Japanese, meanwhile, were so shocked by Trump’s decision to meet with Kim that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe flew to Florida to confer with Trump and try to make sure that Japan’s interests are protected in a Trump-Kim meeting. Trump is most concerned about Kim’s intercontinental missiles; the Japanese are sitting in the neighborhood and are thus equally concerned about short-range missiles. They also are concerned about Japanese citizens who have been kidnapped by the North. Trump had better make sure that he protects Japanese interests when he sits down with Kim. If not, America’s most important diplomatic and military relationship in the region could be badly damaged.
I don’t believe for a moment that Kim is going to give up every piece of his nuclear arms complex. By tweeting his positive expectations, however, Trump has boxed himself in somewhat. He is making it harder for him to make good on his threat to just walk out of any talks with Kim if he doesn’t get what he wants.
Trump says he is going to be smarter than any other American president who has tried to solve the Korean enigma. But it looks to me that he already is losing critical leverage.
