My old pal, Bradley Martin, has this excellent article out today examining whether Kim Jong-un is critically ill. No one knows who his successor might be.
From decades of covering this story, I agree that if there is a power struggle and the North is paralyzed, that creates the possibility of a dramatic multi-sided confrontation involving South Korea, the United States, China and Japan. All of them have different interests and there is no agreed-upon plan for what to do next.
South Korea’s instinct will be to seek to take control of the North to reunify the two Koreas. Securing control of the North’s nuclear capabilities would catapult a unified Korea into being a much more powerful nation than the South is today (although the cost of integrating the two would be high, as West Germany found when it sought to absorb East Germany.
For its part, China will want to establish control because North Korea is a buffer state separating China from South Korea, where U.S. troops possessing nuclear weapons are based. Japan, with a large population of ethnic Koreans from both North and South, will want to guarantee stability. U.S. troops and air bases in Japan presumably would be important in any U.S. military action. Would Japan allow itself to be used as a platform?
The Americans simply do not have a strategy. The U.S. and South Korea have sought to have discussions with China about the various scenarios, but the Chinese have refused to even discuss them, I read recently. The tone of U.S.-Chinese relations these days is at a lowpoint so it’s unlikely that much trust can be established to discuss such a sensitive set of issues. The tone coming from Chinese President Xi Jinping is stridently nationalistic. The tone coming from President Trump is completely nonsensical.
We’re learning that having Trump as president has cost American lives as we seek to deal with the coronavirus. But what would Trump do if a major decision has to be made on the Korean peninsula? Would he understand the enormous stakes? Is there anyone left around him who understands the situation and could guide him? We fought the Chinese in the Korean War at great cost. Would Trump stumble into another confrontation? That’s why I’m hoping fatboy Kim can live a little longer.
