I haven’t seen anyone yet add up three events that have occurred within the past week–the United States has agreed to deploy very advanced radar in South Korea, Japanese voters in the most recent election have given Prime Minister Shinzo Abe enough power that he will now almost certainly strengthen Japan’s military posture, and most recently, the international tribunal in the Hague struck down China’s claim to most of the South China Sea.
Taken together, these developments are a very powerful reaction to China’s military expansion into the East China Sea with its Air Defense Identification Zone and, more importantly, its building of military bases on reefs and underwater islands throughout the South China Sea. The world is talking back to China.
Briefly, the American and South Korean decision to start building the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system on South Korean territory is primarily a response to a belligerent North Korea. But it seems clear that the system will give the Americans and South Koreans some capability to “see” into northeastern China itself. The Chinese have bitterly resisted the THAAD system for that reason.
Secondly, Japan’s Abe is clearly gearing up militarily, even if he does not make any more changes to or “reinterpretations” of the nation’s no-war constitution. The Japanese perceive that the Chinese are expanding militarily, which they are, and Abe is determined not to allow Japan to be put in a position where it can be intimidated. Some of this could be very good for American interests. Some of it could be bad for American interests if the Japanese military takes actions in other areas that are not in keeping with the desires of its U.S. ally.
Thirdly, the ruling from the Hague came in response to a request from a small country, the Philippines. It was a sweeping judgment: China’s efforts to declare a nine-dash zone of control in the South China Sea was entirely invalidated.
I see Andrew Browne, my favorite China commentator, writing in today’s Wall Street Journal, quoting the Chinese as saying this ruling was a “farce directed by Washington.” I’m sure the Chinese suspect the Americans are orchestrating the whole thing.
But the Americans can’t possibly be doing this all by themselves. The South Koreans clearly made a judgment. The Japanese have made a judgment. So did the Philippines and they were backed by a neutral party in Europe.
If the Chinese were truly smart, they would hit the “Pause” button and halt their expansion. The costs are proving to be too great. But I agree with Andrew Browne that President Xi Jinping is unlikely to react that way. He is most likely to continue raising the stakes. He will be taking enormous risks that are not necessary. He will be risking “the Chinese dream” of stability and prosperity that he has sworn to promot
