With President Trump headed to China, it might be an appropriate time to distill my views on U.S.-Chinese relations, which I have been following since transferring to Hong Kong in 1979 for United Press International.
Previous presidents have relied on their national security and technology/economic teams to create a strategy to counter Xi Jinping, who represents a very different kind of leader than Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao. They were content to ride the incredible dynamism of Chinese companies and Chinese entrepreneurs, while allowing a greater blossoming of civil rights, a respect for China’s 55 minority nationalities.
But Xi is from a different wing of the Communist Party. He is a Marxist-Leninist who, like Vladimir Putin, believes that capitalism and democracy can be and must be destroyed. He is using every tool in his kit to do that–fueling Russian and Iranian aggression with oil purchases and dual-use military technology. He has built an astonishing cyber surveillance operation that has penetrated the world’s telecommunications and computing systems. He is engaged in a battle for minds in the global discourse, using all manner of tools to confuse and divide Americans and residents of every other democracy, particularly Taiwan.
Presidents Obama and Biden had some semblance of strategy in dealing with Xi. They worked with allies in Europe and East Asia to seek to control technology flowing to China, and developed export controls for American technology. They attempted to create a coalition of democratic, capitalistic countries that would share many values and cooperate not just militarily but economically as well. Their strategies weren’t perfect, of course. One major problem was that American companies became dependent on the Chinese market during the decades of positive U.S.-Chinese relations and have essentially refused to withdraw support for the new dictator, Xi.
So their strategies were not perfect, but at least they thought–and acted–in a systematic way.
But Trump does not understand the need for policy or strategy. He does not recognize that Xi is attempting to undermine America and Donald Trump. He speaks of how much he and Xi “like” each other and how he is going to get a bear hug from Xi when he arrives in China. He’s looking forward to big parades in Red Square and to elaborate dinners in the Great Hall of the People. Like his visit with King Charles, Trump is very interested in theatrics–in pretending that he is standing with other great men who admire each other and can cut deals.
So he has no consistent strategy. He lurches from one issue to another, often doing contradictory things.Many in his administration want to limit technology flows to China, yet he allowed Jensen Huang of Nvidia to sell some of his most advanced AI semiconductors to China. He imposed tariffs on “Liberation Day” but then relaxed them in response to China’s withholding of rare earths and critical minerals.
The biggest puzzle to me is that he does not recognize that Xi is using the Russians and Iranians. (The North Koreans are not engaged in the same pattern.) China buys oil from Russia and Iran despite American governmental sanctions. Entire “shadow fleets” of tankers essentially smuggle oil to China, often via intermediaries.
In exchange, billions of dollars and yuan flow into the coffers of the Russians and Iranians. They could not be launching invasions of Ukraine or funding Hezbollah and Hamas unless they had Chinese funds. The Chinese also have been reportedly providing shoulder-held anti-aircraft missiles to the Iranians and helping them with radar systems to detect incoming American and Israeli aircraft and missiles.
So for Trump to go to Beijing amid great pomp and circumstance–but without any real strategy–is utterly disgraceful. The Chinese obviously have figured out his game. They will go through the motions of honoring Trump while privately laughing at his naivete. And they will continue to win against America and the Western alliance.
