William J. Holstein

Japan Watch--Just Bring the Troops Out
Jan. 22--We're reading story after story about the presence of 50,000 American troops in Japan, most of them on the tiny island of Okinawa. The new Japanese government isn't sure how to handle the presence of American military bases in Okinawa, which irritate the local residents. The Americans have proposed moving some of the troops to Guam, but the Japanese side, at both the national and regional level, can't seem to create a coherent position.

So we should simply announce that we're leaving, over a five-year period, say. The presence of these troops obviously dates back to the end of World War II, some 65 years ago. Americans "occupied"' Japan for a few years (we didn't really physically occupy the whole country, just maintained a few isolated bases.) And then after a Japanese civilian government was in place in the 1950s, we kept the troops there, partly to prevent Japan from re-arming and becoming a military threat. Then in following decades, as China emerged, we told ourselves that we needed troops in Japan to counterbalance any Chinese threat. And of course, we also have 40,000 troops or so in South Korea, which is facing a very real military threat from North Korea.

But the reasons for us to have troops in Japan have now ceased to exist. Japan has a huge stake in maintaining geopolitical stability so that its economy can continue to benefit from its strong positions in trade and technology. China is never going to attack Japan, at least not in my lifetime, because it also is committed to stability. The fact that Taiwan is reaching out and achieving a much closer, non-confrontational relationship with Beijing means that the threat of hostilities in the Straits of Taiwan has all but disappeared. China knows that at least 1 million Taiwanese live on the mainland and are important to China's own economic prosperity. A war would completely disrupt very real economic prosperity.

So with the possible exception of North Korea, none of the players in East Asia are going to engage in military combat against each other. We should keep a weather eye on Pyongyang, but start moving the troops out of Japan. Some could redeploy to Korea; some to Guam. But most should probably come home. Perhaps a few should be dispatched to Afghanistan. But there is no longer any compelling reason to maintain 50,000 troops in Japan.